What the Bali talks should achieve
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Climate change sceptics now seem convinced there is a problem; the next step is to agree on what needs to be done
COMING to terms with change is hard. But that is what climate experts want us to prepare for - a low-carbon future. They have spoken ‘unequivocally’ about the dangers and have handed the torch of change to the world’s political leaders to avert the threat from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.
Last week’s report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned governments that some impacts of global warming will be ‘abrupt or irreversible’, if they let the temperatures rise.
The stark summary of its earlier reports, a policy guide on the complex science for the more than 100 governments meeting in Bali next week, warns that the window of opportunity for action is short.
The world has got to limit surface temperature increase to under 2 degrees Celsius above its pre-industrial age level by 2015 and for that we have to halve emissions by 2050. Even a small increase can affect the climate.
A rise in temperatures by 1.5 degrees to 2.5 degrees Celsius from current levels will result in extreme weather events. Floods, drought and rising sea levels will threaten fresh water supplies and food security. The cost of inaction will be extremely high: up to 250 million people could be affected in Africa alone. No part of the world will be spared, with the poor taking the hardest blows.
It is with good reason that Ban Ki Moon, the UN Secretary General, has called global warming ‘the defining challenge of our age’.
This has been a momentous year with a series of IPCC reports highlighting the troubles ahead and the Nobel Peace Prize being awarded to the panel.
Even nations and groups once sceptical about the climate change science seem to have a different understanding of the situation now. In Australia, which has the highest emissions per person, most people seem to have put environment above the economy, if pre-election opinion polls are right.
The US still complains about a lack of clear scientific definition of the ‘dangers’ but will go with the Group of Eight consensus that that matter warrants urgent action. There is grudging recognition that climate fears are no longer ‘the greatest hoax perpetrated on the American people’ as it was once proclaimed to be. It is a measure of real progress that Washington made no effort to water down the final IPCC report.
Such developments may raise hopes for better results this time at Bali than at Kyoto, though ‘Kyoto II’ talks will be more comprehensive and complicated. Policy makers are expected to initiate a roadmap to the post-Kyoto climate framework. The talks will focus on such key building blocks as adaptation, mitigation, technology cooperation and financing the responses to climate change.
The countries will have to complete a series of treaties by 2009 so that everything is ready when the Kyoto treaty expires in 2012. Asia will figure prominently in the new phase. Asian nations have committed to act on sustainable development.
How to achieve that goal painlessly and profitably will be a matter of deep debate.
Japan has pledged US$2 billion aid to help East Asia fight pollution. Their goals are to increase forest cover by 15 million hectares by 2020 to absorb greenhouse gases and to promote renewable fuels, including civilian nuclear power.
Any climate adaptation and mitigation work will inevitably focus on fossil fuels. The ever sceptical Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) understands and fears that - and now wants to be seen as part of the solution. It has promised a research and development fund, with US$750 million already committed - to ensure continued use of petroleum in a worried world. The grouping is probably reassured by projections that show continued dominance of fossil fuels until 2030. With such demand, carbon dioxide emissions will also increase at the rate of 1.7 per cent between 2004 and 2030, says the International Energy Agency.
To Opec’s relief, the IPCC has singled out carbon capture and storage (CCS) as the most promising technology to reduce emissions. The group has embraced it as the centrepiece of its green agenda, something that will find ready backers in other fossil fuel producers such as China, a major coal producer. The IEA is predicting a 73 per cent increase in the use of coal by 2030. Coal is cheap and abundant but it is also a highly polluting form of energy.
But carbon capture and storage is still an idea that will take at least a decade to become a commercial reality, experts told US legislators recently. Pilot plants are running in several countries like Algeria, Canada and Norway. To CCS critics, it is also an energy intensive process like biofuels and runs huge risks associated with accidental release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. However CCS is only a part of the solution to hold down emissions.
Obviously, the answer lies in using renewable energies without upsetting food prices and providing cleaner vehicles and better insulation for every home. Successes at cellulosic ethanol and fuel cells are vital to any low-carbon future. The consequences of not reversing fossil fuel juggernaut are disastrous, says IPCC president Rajendra Pachauri.
So will the Bali meeting produce a shared vision or will it bog down in another series of protracted debates over economic costs and commitments? IPCC has said that the emissions can be controlled at minimal cost. Efficient energy use and controlling emissions from deforestation can achieve a lot.
Setting a price for carbon is the key. Establishing quotas and carbon trading systems for developed country polluters was the Kyoto way, but now developing countries need to be involved. We need mandatory emission targets.
A carbon tax and incentives for increased use of alternatives are the other ideas but are equally controversial. Obviously developed countries have a greater moral obligation and greater capacity to act on climate change. Still, a consensus on ‘common but differentiated targets’ will be a hard fought one.
Britain is working on the first Bill on environment and Prime Minister Gordon Brown has talked about an ambitious 80 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050, instead of 60 per cent from the 1990 level set in legislation. The US Senate is working on a Bill that sets caps on emission to achieve a 63 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050. An incentive system will give credit to industries cutting emissions.
Ultimately, a low carbon drive demands wholesale changes. IPCC chief Mr Pachauri says that we need a new ethic where we realise the gravity of the challenge and effect changes in lifestyles, attitude and behaviour for a low carbon future.
But the first step to that lofty goal is creating a shared vision. Bali will be a key test of our resolve.
Filed by Nikola Cvetkovic under The Environment